Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 36.336426 43.116786 50.609590 59.475758 69.650843 80.932363 94.355694
2024-10-20 28.826606 38.430143 50.102266 65.202872 84.077646 106.736465 135.824140
2024-10-27 20.975560 30.804390 43.716996 61.653874 85.612395 116.163784 157.661554
2024-11-03 17.711236 28.132330 42.702026 64.100658 94.178509 134.320855 191.181987
2024-11-10 15.616316 26.563525 42.713776 67.583434 104.062697 154.611430 228.701222
2024-11-17 13.831330 25.063917 42.469509 70.439637 113.050735 174.075245 266.214233
2024-11-24 11.835507 22.838507 40.732186 70.700665 118.043145 187.994443 296.595460
2024-12-01 9.782146 20.128065 37.795464 68.631164 119.116758 196.018436 318.667885
2024-12-08 8.500871 18.542596 36.460897 68.901529 123.708367 209.431634 349.361329
2024-12-15 7.538234 17.373875 35.660748 69.909089 129.455499 224.854626 383.867543
2024-12-22 5.893993 14.549525 31.479158 64.521079 123.992482 222.041739 389.570535
2024-12-29 5.328004 13.851095 31.164650 66.000023 130.303272 238.540759 426.799085
2025-01-05 4.379075 12.238628 29.062477 64.350391 131.753342 248.409678 456.180961
2025-01-12 4.246415 12.506024 30.861610 70.512414 148.083427 284.958263 532.762816
2025-01-19 3.330456 10.640278 27.848257 66.717891 145.543209 288.692409 554.206731
2025-01-26 3.016967 10.238253 27.970052 69.336976 155.410210 314.943462 615.933432
2025-02-02 2.807411 10.067478 28.588098 73.062965 167.739223 346.404498 688.569941
2025-02-09 2.579617 9.785883 28.891553 76.117277 178.951147 376.483878 760.372917
2025-02-16 2.241292 9.075979 28.016190 76.396354 184.464884 396.214535 814.508445
2025-02-23 1.847162 8.063208 26.176815 74.183504 184.501646 405.446943 849.798525
2025-03-02 1.609797 7.502626 25.433844 74.472631 189.889800 425.327489 905.945880
2025-03-09 1.430699 7.093555 25.035854 75.550019 197.075758 449.154129 970.757139
2025-03-16 1.079918 5.891449 22.104421 69.786891 188.309691 440.313585 972.248363